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Oil, electricity and coal: in 2009, the overall supply will exceed demand

refined oil prices will decline, power consumption will decline, and coal mine production will be limited... In the first two months of 2009, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, domestic oil, electricity and coal consumption will remain weak. Will this situation continue throughout the year? Recently, a report released by the national development and Reform Commission showed that in 2009, consumption growth of refined oil, electricity and coal may be relatively limited, while supply may tend to be loose on the whole

this conclusion coincides with the previous prediction that many energy engines need operators to turn off the power supply immediately. However, the industry generally believes that energy consumption is closely related to the macroeconomic situation, and it all depends on when and to what extent China's economy will recover

oil demand may rise slightly

the national development and Reform Commission said that due to various factors, there is still great uncertainty in the supply and demand of domestic refined oil. It is expected that the growth rate of refined oil consumption in 2009 may be at a low level, and the consumption in the first half of the year is lower than that in the same period last year

wood Mackenzie, the world's largest energy consulting company, recently estimated that due to the impact of the global economic recession in various fiber orientations in Asia, the demand for crude oil in China is expected to grow by only 0.3% in 2009, that is, 27000 barrels per day. Previously, the International Energy Agency predicted that China's oil demand growth rate in 2009 was 0.7%, less than 1/5 of the level in recent years

according to a refinery source in Guangdong, Sinopec headquarters recently issued a notice requiring eight enterprises including Gaoqiao Petrochemical to prepare for the export of refined oil products in March, most of which are diesel, but the specific quantity has not yet been implemented

analysts of e-trade information believe that in recent years, in order to ensure the domestic supply of refined oil and control the export of refined oil, it is rare for China to arrange multiple refineries to export centrally. This also shows from the side that affected by the financial tsunami, the supply and demand of domestic refined oil began to change, from tight to abundant

however, the international energy agency believes that the changing economic environment means that China's oil demand in 2009 is expected to be revised frequently in the coming months, and there is still an "upward risk" in crude oil demand this year, especially when the Chinese government uses low oil prices to fill more strategic reserves, and the stimulus plan exceeds expectations

according to the prediction of the national development and Reform Commission, with the gradual appearance of the effects of various measures to expand investment, increase domestic demand and promote growth, the consumption of refined oil will rebound, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated

power demand may be high in the first place and low in the second.

the national development and Reform Commission predicts that the overall power supply and demand in 2009 was phased in excess of demand. However, affected by uncertain factors such as the water supply from the reservoir and the lagging construction of electricity, tension may still occur in some areas during the dry season or the summer peak period

a report from the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that due to the combined effect of many factors, the growth rate of power demand will fall sharply in 2009, the power production capacity will increase, the average utilization hours of power generation will continue to decline, and there will be excess power. At the same time, affected by the insufficient demand for electricity in downstream industries, the electricity price will remain stable in 2009

according to the "analysis and prediction report on the national power supply and demand and economic operation situation" previously released by the China Electricity Council, the national power supply and demand situation will continue to continue in the second half of 2008. Among them, East China Nanfang power supply and demand press the "start" button to start the electromechanical (the red signal light is on and balanced, and the electricity in North China, central China, Northeast China and Northwest China is rich.

the data shows that in January 2009, the electricity consumption of the whole society fell by 12.88% year-on-year, showing a negative growth for the first time, while the power generation of power plants above the national scale fell by 12.30% year-on-year, with a negative growth for the fourth consecutive month. Analysts pointed out that the Spring Festival factor has a great impact on electricity consumption, but the decline in the vitality of industrial economies is the fundamental reason.

Secretary of the China electricity Union Wang Yonggan said that although the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is expected to be about 5% in 2009, the first quarter or even the second quarter of 2009 will be the most difficult period for power growth, and negative growth is still likely to continue in the first half of 2009

however, he also said that in the third quarter, the power demand in various regions, especially in North China, East China and the coastal areas of South China, may continue to show positive growth, and gradually drive or affect the power consumption growth in the central and western regions after entering the fourth quarter. Throughout the year, there will be a clear "low before high after" trend

the growth of coal demand may slow down

the national development and Reform Commission said that on the whole, the coal demand in 2009 was basically stable, the effective supply capacity continued to increase, and the thermal coal tended to be generally loose. However, due to the structural contradictions between production and transportation demand and some uncertain factors, the possibility of regional tightness in the peak demand season could not be ruled out

Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the national energy administration, revealed at an internal meeting recently that in 2009, with the further effect of national measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, it is expected that coal demand will continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down

Zhang Guobao said that due to the rapid spread of the international financial crisis, the obvious slowdown in world economic growth, and the unresolved deep-seated contradictions and problems in China's economic life, at present, the output of products in the power, steel, building materials and chemical industries closely related to the coal industry is declining, and the demand for coal will slow down in the short term

Li Chaolin, senior analyst of China's coal market, predicts that the growth rate of coal output in 2009 will be lower than that in 2008, and the growth rate of output will be lower than double digits, between 5% and 10%, and the total output will be about 2.85 billion tons

it was learned that in order to cope with the weakening demand for coal, Shanxi, the "coal boss", proposed the principle of "determining production according to demand, determining sales according to price, determining transportation according to sales, and distributing coal according to money", so as to carry out the regulation and control of the total amount of coal in the province. In January, 2009, the raw coal output of Shanxi continued to decrease, with a decrease of 13.81 million tons over the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.26 million tons, a decrease of 13.6%

based on the prediction of the slowdown in the demand growth of the coal market this year, Shanxi has determined the main expected target of the province's coal production and sales: the output is 650million tons, and the provincial sales volume is 530 million tons, which is basically the same year-on-year. The head of Shanxi Coal Industry Bureau said that the impact testing machine must be firmly installed on a concrete foundation with good enough quality. He said that the coal industry could not take the road of quantitative expansion, and should take advantage of the situation to accelerate resource integration, mergers and acquisitions

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